Category: Health

Here is a very interesting report on the influential study that showed the graph with the second wave (previous blog). It also explains why the UK suddenly changed its policy from one that would develop “herd immunity” to suppression. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

The number of cases in the US have skyrocketed in just a few days, and is now higher than Spain. This trend will probably accelerate.

Canada at 1,328 is also on the exponential “hockey stick”, but the lower number of cases are more manageable for our health care systems, so far.

Highlights of the best info I have found. Not really a lot to read because the graphs tell it all. This is for people who are not afraid of math, statistics and graphs.

I think these graphs really show the whole story which is generally not being reported in the news. People are clinging to the hope that the recent closures (schools, restaurants, …) will flatten the curve and will end after the 3 week period. It’s clear from most countries that started on the Covid-19 path earlier this is pretty unrealistic for Canada.

World map, by country shows how Canada has been on a somewhat lower track than many other countries.

The US is on higher track, approaching Spain and Iran.  

But a detailed Canada graph of total cases by day shows how we have entered real exponential growth. Cases from Mar 15 to 18 have more than doubled, 250 to 569. This sudden change rattled Canadian Health authorities and led to a whole string of closures and other support measures being announced since last Friday. We probably will not stay on the lower track in the previous graph and will follow a path more like Europe.