Epidemiological Growth

This post has a lot of math/graph information. Even if you are not usually interested in this, it might be worth looking at some of it.

The Covid-19 growth curve is often characterized as exponential growth. Here is an amazing video that shows exponential growth. You don’t need to follow all the math to be impressed by the animation. I think it deserves an Oscar nomination for that category.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=14&v=54XLXg4fYsc&feature=emb_logo

In fact, epidemics are not exponential growth curves. They are Logistic growth curves. But the very early part can be approximated by an exponential curve, as shown in this picture.

Here is a more sophisticated video that explains Logistic growth (be patient, not until about 5:50).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

A separate but related topic is “What are these Covid-19 models?” These are mathematical models that try to predict the progress of the virus. A widely used model is the SIR model. It divides the population into 3 groups and uses a series of equations to show the change over time to the number of susceptible people, the number of people infected, and the number of people who have recovered (or died).Here is a picture of the output of this model. 

By modelling different policies such as social distancing, you can see if the Infected curve flattens or not.

This next video has a lot more math than the previous ones but you don’t really have to understand differential equations to follow it. You can also skip the math definition part and advance to 13:15 to see an animation of the model.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1337&v=k6nLfCbAzgo&feature=emb_logo

Author: Ernie Dainow

I was fascinated with mathematics at an early age. In university I became more interested in how people think and began graduate work in psychology. The possibilities of using computers to try to understand the brain by simulating learning and thinking became an exciting idea and I completed a Master’s degree in Artificial Intelligence in Computer Science. My interest in doing research shifted to an interest in building systems. I worked for 40+ years in the computer field, on large mainframe computers, then personal computers, doing software development for academic and scientific research, business and financial applications, data networks, hardware products and the Internet. After I retired I began writing to help people understand computers, software, smartphones and the Internet. You can download my free books from Apple iBooks, Google Play Books and from https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/edainow

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