As the number of variants of concern increase to 50% of all cases in many areas and Covid-19 case counts start to move up, there is increasing concern that we are at the start of a third wave in Canada and the U.S. In spite of these warning signals, governments continue to relax restrictions, which threaten to accelerate this trend. Many parts of Europe are already in the midst of a major third wave.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/europe/coronavirus-europe-third-wave-intl/index.html
Because the variants spread more rapidly than the normal Covid-19 virus, the third wave can occur extremely quickly. This chart shows the rapid rise in the United Kingdom due to the UK variant that peaked in January and in Italy the sharp increase that has doubled the number of daily new cases in three weeks.
This chart can be accessed with the following link where you can add other countries for comparison and follow the progress of the third wave as time goes on.
https://tinyurl.com/tw6pdb7a
Where is Canada headed?
In December a researcher at the B.C. Centre for Disease Control was reviewing the clinical trial data of the Pfizer vaccine and recalculated the efficacy of the first dose at 92% rather than 52% that Pfizer had reported. She realized that with such a highly protective first dose, the benefits derived from a scarce supply of vaccine could be maximized by deferring second doses. This was reviewed by the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) and on March 1 they issued a strong recommendation that the second dose of all COVID-19 vaccines should be delayed up to four months after the first. All the provinces are following this recommendation.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-covid-19-vaccine-delay-risk-1.5939134
This was an insightful and bold action taken by Canada. No other country has delayed second doses for 4 months. This almost doubles the vaccine supply in the country.
In addition, after various delays in vaccine deliveries there is a big increase in confirmed deliveries which will double the number of vaccines in Canada in two weeks.
These two changes in Canada’s vaccine rollout make a huge difference. The revised coronavirus model now shows a manageable third wave peak of less than 7,500 new cases daily. By May, the population immunity is about 40% and the number of new cases start to decline. Since Canada sustained daily cases of 10,000 in January 2021, this situation would not trigger a lockdown.
However, while the vaccination rate is increasing, more regions are relaxing restrictions. If the reproduction number increases by only 20%, the third wave peaks at 15,000 daily cases. This would probably trigger lockdowns in some areas of the country in mid-May.
In the second wave, most regions, especially Ontario and Quebec, delayed too long to bring in lockdown measures. If they had done this at the beginning of the second wave in November instead of delaying until the last moment in December, the lockdown period would have been shorter and the population could have enjoyed a December holiday season closer to “normal”.
The variant infection wave accelerated really quickly as shown on the charts for the UK and Italy. This characteristic delay to act by provincial premiers and their health ministries portend a bad outcome. So it’s no wonder that health experts do not trust that their own governments will handle the third wave very well. Sunnybrook, one of the largest hospitals in Ontario, is building a field hospital in preparation for a possible third wave. This is being done with federal funds provided for such a purpose. The Ontario minister of health had no comment on this development.
https://globalnews.ca/video/7689345/coronavirus-sunnybrook-field-hospital-pops-up-amid-concerns-of-3rd-wave
Regardless of whether there is a third wave or not, here are some of the risks associated with the new variants.
Where is the U.S. headed?
The U.S. continues to increase its vaccination rate. The current trend will easily outpace the variants with no significant third wave. By May the population immunity is 50% and cases decline rapidly.
However, this scenario is not likely. Already many states have removed all restrictions. If the reproduction number increases by 35%, the U.S. will have a third wave and daily new cases will increase to 185,000. In the U.S. there was a peak of 250,000 cases a day in January 2021. Only some areas particularly hard hit by a third wave would likely implement lockdowns.
This is a lot of cases and corresponding deaths, but the U.S. is able to sustain a high case and death count without resorting to tough lockdowns. This is distinctly different from Canada where cultural and political differences enable public health science to exert a stronger influence over business interests in determining lockdown policies.
