The whole truth about the source of virus spread

Day after day there are reports of the spread of Covid-19 and the new case counts in the news. More often than not, these reports focus on restaurants and bars as a major cause for the spread of the virus. I suggested in the blog on September 24 that a likely overlooked source of virus spread was people going back to work. I could not find statistics to back this up until I saw this chart on the CBC National News on October 18.

This chart does not include the two largest categories, long term care homes and health care. Of the remainder, it clearly shows that 45% of cases are from Industrial settings (manufacturing) and 17% are from Congregate living (group homes). Another 15% is from general community spread. Only 4% of cases are from “Food/drink/retail”. Another suspected source of infection that is often reported is schools. This accounts for only 5% of cases.

The percentage for Food is in fact a lot lower. Contact tracing fails to identify the source of infection in over 50% of cases.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-cases-data-1.5726687

Since restaurants and bars record the names of patrons, contact tracing these cases is quite good and there will not be very many in the 50% of cases that are not traced. So instead of 4%, the total infections occurring in bars and restaurants is only about 2%.

Why the news keeps focusing on bars and restaurants as the major cause of virus spread is beyond me. Journalists may be excused since this data seems to be very hard to locate, but public health should know this data and should be reporting it so that the general public understands that being out at work and out in the community in general is their biggest risk of contracting the virus. And public health should not be recommending that bars and restaurants be closed, they are not a significant source of the spread of Covid-19.

Author: Ernie Dainow

I was fascinated with mathematics at an early age. In university I became more interested in how people think and began graduate work in psychology. The possibilities of using computers to try to understand the brain by simulating learning and thinking became an exciting idea and I completed a Master’s degree in Artificial Intelligence in Computer Science. My interest in doing research shifted to an interest in building systems. I worked for 40+ years in the computer field, on large mainframe computers, then personal computers, doing software development for academic and scientific research, business and financial applications, data networks, hardware products and the Internet. After I retired I began writing to help people understand computers, software, smartphones and the Internet. You can download my free books from Apple iBooks, Google Play Books and from https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/edainow

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