It seems clear now that many States that opened too early at the end of May has led to an increase in Covid-19 cases in the US.
By contrast, in Canada where opening has been more gradual and is still in progress, new cases continue to decline.
Many states (red on map) are seeing increases in the daily number of cases. The three largest states in the US — California, Texas, Florida — are setting records for the highest number of new daily cases since the pandemic began. Texas has just started to reimpose some lockdown restrictions. Many other states will likely be forced to do the same.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcaMSmD-3Wc&feature=youtu.be&t=73
This spike in cases does not disprove the alternate theories reviewed in the previous email, which basically held that the virus would not spread at epidemic rates because population immunity had become 50% or more. Those theories could still be true and in the US the virus is spreading because their immunity level is under 50%.
These alternate theories used UK data to arrive at the conclusion that immunity in the UK could be more than 50%. The real test of these theories will be what happens in the UK. The UK is still in various stages of lockdown, but on July 4, pubs, bars and restaurants reopen. If people do not adhere to social distancing guidelines, there could be a spike in cases, as in the US, or there could be no spike if the theories about immunity in the UK are true.
Indications are that social distancing guidelines will not be followed very well, as seen in the rush to Bournemouth Beach last weekend. This is similar to scenes from California and Florida.
