There is a lot of news about the coronavirus pandemic especially now that cases are on the rise in Canada and Europe. A lot of the news focuses on one particular aspect. It is quite difficult to get a high level overview not only about what is happening but what is the likely progression.
Here is my analysis based on reading a lot of these news items and integrating them with a little thought.
Case counts have been on a steady increase in Canada since the beginning of September.
In the U.S. case counts have declined from the peak at the end of July, but they are still very high and are starting to rise again.
In Europe, case counts started to rise in early August.
News reports, presumably based on public health information and government policies would have you believe that these increases are due primarily to group gatherings exceeding social distancing rules. Videos to prove this point show groups of young people dancing, but in most of these videos the people are outside and not in exceedingly large crowds. These are not conditions for rapid virus spread.
A big part of the problem is that contact tracing has failed, especially in the U.S.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/health/covid-contact-tracing-tests.html?s=09#click=https://t.co/IuIOrWkNoq
In Canada with lower case counts, some contact tracing is being done successfully. But about 33% of the new cases do not get traced. This means that the sources of infection for a lot of new cases are not discovered and these cases lead to further spread of the virus.
It’s easy to trace cases in outbreaks that are all from the same place such as a bar or a public or private gathering. But most of the new cases that are not being identified are likely from the increased interactions that have been occurring as restrictions have been relaxed. A number of people have reported that their employers have requested that they return to work, at least part-time. After six months of working from home, many employers are getting nervous that their employees are not working a full week and they want to be able to monitor them more closely. Many of these people returning to work are taking public transit which can be quite crowded.
At lunch time many people probably go out to eat in restaurants and go shopping. All of these activities lead to increased contact and increased transmission. Even if they are following guidelines and wearing masks, masks are not 100% effective. They leak and are often handled improperly. When people adjust the mask or take it off they often touch the outside of the mask. If the mask is working and protecting them from virus then the mask exterior may have virus droplets. When they take the mask off they are transferring the virus to their hands which will often then be transferred to their face.
These strong trends in rising virus case counts mean we are in the second wave and will require a full lockdown scenario. Lockdown will be lifted in early December, just in time for Christmas shopping. But a third wave will start around March 2021 and require another lockdown, as explained and predicted in this blog on May 9, 2020
As far as vaccine research progress goes, there are daily reports differing on when a vaccine will be ready. None of them explain the reasons for their dates. Here is the optimistic scenario.
Several leading vaccines will complete their phase III clinical trials by the end of December 2020. The ones that are safe and effective will get fast track approval from the FDA. It is reasonable to expect that one or more vaccines will be available for use by April 2021.
Once people start getting vaccinated it will take some time before enough people are immune to decrease the spread of the virus. If 6% of the population can be vaccinated per month, the virus will continue spreading through the summer and there may be a fourth wave that requires lockdown.
It won’t be until November 2022 that there will be sufficient immunity to slow down the spread of the virus. This is when 50% of the population has immunity from either a vaccination or from having been infected and recovered from the virus. This is the “herd immunity” that will finally stop the epidemic spread of the virus.
You don’t need a complicated epidemiological model to predict this, other than to account for some of the more subtle variatons due to lockdown periods. This is just simple math — if a country can vaccinate 6% of its population per month, it can achieve 50% herd immunity in 8 months.
Canada, Europe, the U.S. and Australia can likely achieve this timeline. For the rest of the world it will likely take longer.
