The first blog article on the Delta variant, on June 18, 2021, showed an increase in cases in July but declining throughout August and beyond. This was more of a bump than a fourth wave.
https://anydaynow.blog/delta-variant/
The blog on July 19 revised the model projections by recalculating herd immunity for the delta variant when 80% of the population was fully vaccinated. Then vaccination rates were projected and herd immunity was predicted in August in Canada.
https://anydaynow.blog/herd-immunity-recalculated/
But here we are at the end of August and daily cases in Canada are still increasing.
What happened to herd immunity?
The big change was that at the beginning of August, the rate of vaccination decreased in Canada. On the current trajectory, 80% fully vaccinated will not be reached until October instead of August.
This change results in a fourth wave that peaks with about 6,000 new cases per day at the beginning of October, 2021. After that, cases decline to a negligible amount.
